Research

My research studies how health policy, public programs, and provider markets shape access to care and mortality, with a particular focus on substance use policy and treatment access. I will keep working papers, publication links, replication materials, and related discussion here as projects become public.

Publications: none yet. Current public work is listed under working papers.

Working Papers

NBER Working Paper No. 35427 � July 2026

Did Drug Decriminalization Increase Overdoses?

David Hall, Benjamin Hansen, and Kyutaro Matsuzawa

Paper page DOI SSRN

Abstract

We study the effect of drug decriminalization on overdose mortality using Oregon’s Measure 110 and Washington’s Blake decision. Synthetic-control estimates show that both decriminalization regimes sharply reduced drug arrests and were followed by sustained increases in overdose mortality relative to matched counterfactuals. The estimates imply approximately 1,186 excess deaths in Oregon and 1,895 in Washington from 2021 through 2023. We also revisit the role of fentanyl supply shocks. A fentanyl-share control may partly capture enforcement-driven declines in non-fentanyl NFLIS reports, while alternative fentanyl measures leave positive overdose effects.

Suggested citation

Hall, David, Benjamin Hansen, and Kyutaro Matsuzawa. 2026. “Did Drug Decriminalization Increase Overdoses?” NBER Working Paper No. 35427. https://doi.org/10.3386/w35427.

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